Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 2.486151 2.920401 3.402659 3.977180 4.642206 5.387009 6.283627
2025-10-26 1.727513 2.281264 2.965288 3.868926 5.027579 6.459306 8.358244
2025-11-02 1.246308 1.818079 2.590744 3.703509 5.255954 7.334455 10.315607
2025-11-09 0.921821 1.466819 2.262967 3.497841 5.348888 8.000401 12.060414
2025-11-16 0.729730 1.253506 2.072648 3.427732 5.588492 8.867474 14.174580
2025-11-23 0.596381 1.097894 1.931859 3.393227 5.854788 9.784934 16.462421
2025-11-30 0.526659 1.031201 1.917080 3.550143 6.436028 11.251695 19.784529
2025-12-07 0.449909 0.934502 1.830615 3.563855 6.768310 12.341422 22.610596
2025-12-14 0.384522 0.844850 1.738929 3.548336 7.038239 13.346388 25.399979
2025-12-21 0.333540 0.772915 1.666764 3.554259 7.341539 14.436921 28.458334
2025-12-28 0.318496 0.773211 1.736339 3.846437 8.227165 16.690738 33.903930
2026-01-04 0.286674 0.729892 1.708055 3.932716 8.713080 18.239046 38.179874
2026-01-11 0.259143 0.692323 1.688725 4.041398 9.273567 20.025554 43.185208
2026-01-18 0.228199 0.640274 1.628766 4.052786 9.633114 21.459245 47.669453
2026-01-25 0.193319 0.570492 1.515073 3.922697 9.663403 22.214773 50.844460
2026-02-01 0.160294 0.497855 1.380760 3.720248 9.497794 22.527976 53.110662
2026-02-08 0.138867 0.452380 1.306152 3.651145 9.632561 23.512154 56.950116
2026-02-15 0.121999 0.416168 1.248963 3.616381 9.844121 24.691706 61.357679
2026-02-22 0.114939 0.408262 1.267323 3.783683 10.582775 27.176391 69.038058
2026-03-01 0.103286 0.382951 1.231931 3.798496 10.930796 28.769157 74.784535
2026-03-08 0.092092 0.356416 1.188028 3.782106 11.193957 30.184498 80.256788
2026-03-15 0.082901 0.334497 1.153929 3.788428 11.519429 31.791123 86.371798
2026-03-22 0.082368 0.343615 1.218272 4.098676 12.731980 35.787085 98.894693